Is the Four Year Cycle actually dead? Going into the year I believe the consensus was that we were to top out into late April/early May – similar to 2021. But consensus is rarely correct. And once this was invalidated, everyone was calling for the top to have already been in and the end of the cycle. Granted, we had ~34% drawdown from January into April this year, but the market often forgets that these sort of corrections are common even in an uptrend. And while M2 money supply continues to trend up into the right, I find it difficult to dismiss the continuation of this cycle into Q4 – similar to 2017. Powell’s decision to leave rates unchanged with possible cuts pushed out into September, easing fiscal policy across several economies, and the proliferation of DATs lines up with my thesis that this cycle mirrors the 2017 run. And with Trump actively pushing rate cuts and reshaping the Fed board, there’s growing pressure on Powell to eventually pivot. Even without formal easing, markets have already started to front-run the shift as pointed out below. This is the exact setup we saw in 2017 – a slow build-up of reflationary momentum that ultimately drove the late-cycle parabolic melt-up in crypto. Of course, it’s always worth adjusting the thesis if invalidated, but for now the timing of events is too uncanny to ignore. My only concern is if the front running accelerates, we may be closer to the final innings than we originally thought.

Ppl still don't understand how much of the global population is unbanked and in need of a stable reliable currency

Are Private AMMs taking over Solana? Over 40% of all trading volume on Jupiter today is routed through prop AMMs like SolFi, ZeroFi, and Obric. Despite being completely closed source they’ve managed to capture nearly half of the volume within the last 6 months. But what exactly is a “prop AMM”? The concept of a proprietary AMM might seem like a contradiction. AMMs by design are open, deterministic systems. Their role is to offer clear pricing curves and trustless access to liquidity. The structure of a prop AMM is akin to that of an active market maker. They: ▫️Quote prices privately ▫️Don’t operate frontends ▫️Rely on vault-based liquidity ▫️Execute only through aggregators We can basically refer to them as on-chain market makers. The goal is to close the spread and offer tighter quotes. And while the rise of prop AMMs are consolidating liquidity towards a handful of venues; the market structure as a whole is becoming more efficient. Market makers are noticing this trend, and traders don’t care who’s routing their trades – they care about better quotes and fills. Solana is the early proof of this, and the broader market will increasingly stratify into aggregator-driven execution environments dominated by a small set of backend prop AMMs. We could see a bifurcated market structure - on one end sophisticated venues dominating volume on Jupiter, and on the other, V2 style pools like Raydium capturing the tail-end of assets.

Great report on agentic browsers by @CannnGurel If your curious where the landscape of browsers are headed, I’d definitely recommend giving it a read

The more I listen to tech bros talk about longevity and health the more I realize how retarded they actually are

You thought $ETH was going to rip but $SOL was going to stay sidelined?

Wonder how this plays out for prop AMMs assuming this unlocks private txns and maker priority Even more interesting how things will shape out now that CLOBs have priority cancels and can tighten the spread

guess it wasn't a great idea to full port $PUMP after all

The @PlasmaFDN Thesis: Everyone is going full stack Stablecoins continue to be crypto’s largest use case, with outstanding supply now exceeding $262B. Tether has grown another ~4% within the last month, maintaining ~66% of that overall market share. Much of Tether’s success has hinged on the adoption and need for a stable and accessible unit of currency in emerging global markets and economies plagued with hyperinflation. This is where the disconnect lies. The echo chamber of CT underestimates the actual TAM of stablecoins. Tether has become the most practical form of digital dollar exposure for millions around the world. Capturing that value by owning the full stack is where most players are moving toward. Codex is now following this playbook as the USDC native chain. It isn’t necessarily about having another specific chain, but rather about distribution. In reality, Plasma’s architecture and GTM strategy is optimizing for global payments and remittance services. Their approach focuses on an already existing demand from corridors outside the US where a majority of the unbanked populations reside. From a narrative perspective, Plasma is currently the most direct bet towards stablecoin adoption outside of CRCL. And if you want to know just how deprived the space is for stablecoin exposure, just take a look at Circles recent IPO success.

The @PlasmaFDN Thesis: Everyone is going full stack Stablecoins continue to be crypto’s largest use case, with outstanding supply now exceeding $262B. Tether has grown another ~4% within the last month, maintaining ~66% of that overall market share. Much of Tether’s success has hinged on the adoption and need for a stable and accessible unit of currency in emerging global markets and economies plagued with hyperinflation. This is where the disconnect lies. The echo chamber of CT underestimates the actual TAM of stablecoins. Tether has become the most practical form of digital dollar exposure for millions around the world. Capturing that value by owning the full stack is where most players are moving toward. Codex is now following this playbook as the USDC native chain. It isn’t necessarily about having another specific chain, but rather about distribution. In reality, Plasma’s architecture and GTM strategy is optimizing for global payments and remittance services. Their approach focuses on an already existing demand from corridors outside the US where a majority of the unbanked populations reside. From a narrative perspective, Plasma is currently the most direct bet towards stablecoin adoption outside of CRCL. And if you want to know just how deprived the space is for stablecoin exposure, just take a look at Circles recent IPO success.