Is the Four Year Cycle actually dead? Going into the year I believe the consensus was that we were to top out into late April/early May – similar to 2021. But consensus is rarely correct. And once this was invalidated, everyone was calling for the top to have already been in and the end of the cycle. Granted, we had ~34% drawdown from January into April this year, but the market often forgets that these sort of corrections are common even in an uptrend. And while M2 money supply continues to trend up into the right, I find it difficult to dismiss the continuation of this cycle into Q4 – similar to 2017. Powell’s decision to leave rates unchanged with possible cuts pushed out into September, easing fiscal policy across several economies, and the proliferation of DATs lines up with my thesis that this cycle mirrors the 2017 run. And with Trump actively pushing rate cuts and reshaping the Fed board, there’s growing pressure on Powell to eventually pivot. Even without formal easing, markets have already started to front-run the shift as pointed out below. This is the exact setup we saw in 2017 – a slow build-up of reflationary momentum that ultimately drove the late-cycle parabolic melt-up in crypto. Of course, it’s always worth adjusting the thesis if invalidated, but for now the timing of events is too uncanny to ignore. My only concern is if the front running accelerates, we may be closer to the final innings than we originally thought.