if eth rejects 4k this time i'm pivoting to b2b SaaS

life is just switching between claude code and cursor until you die

visual design is wildly overrated interaction design is wildly underrated

every time there's a slow news day on CT the entire timeline just decides to bully pasternak

they tell me we’ve passed the turing test, and yet all i see is AI slop on the timeline

counterpoint: there has been way more turnover in the pro-terminal market than with launchpads pump has weathered far more attacks than anything else (until recently) meanwhile, pro trading UIs have had much more turnover (photon → bullx → axiom) fighting pump is a coordination challenge. to win, you have to: ~ convince all the liquidity that’s chasing new pairs to start chasing pairs on your launchpad ~ convince “devs” to launch assets with you ~ convince coin CTOs to run up coins your launchpad but these groups reinforce each other: ~ devs are there because the liquidity is there ~ liquidity is there because the rest of liquidity is there (and devs are also there) in order to fight axiom: ~ you can start by convincing a single trader to switch over because it’s a single player tool

solo trenching is -ev squad up

working theory: the conclusion that all memecoin trading is a “slot machine” is one of CTs laziest mischaracterizations, equivalent to those that dismiss poker as a game of pure chance to the untrained eye, poker looks random. so much so that it was lumped in with “gambling”, despite overwhelming evidence that long-term profitability is skill-based the poker world has fought this misclassification for decades the same might be true for attention assets today yes, there’s randomness but skilled participants (those who can read social signals, front-run consensus, and manage risk through narrative cycles) consistently outperform the fact that names like Cupsey / Gake / Cented keep showing up at the top, week after week is more evidence this might be true just like WSOP. thousands enter, and variance is high and yet, phil ivey, bonomo, and negreanu keep making final tables is that a slot machine? or is it edge?

prototyping something fun

ive never seen such a wide disconnect between crypto markets and founder sentiment ~ btc at all time highs ~ friendly regulatory regime ~ cheap block space ~ better UX infra (via privy/turnkey) ~ relaxed app store rules yet most builders I know seem deeply pessimistic about what’s actually winnable as a startup right now in crypto