1/ sharing some snippets from another quarter of reporting at @CrucibleCap and some thoughts on the climate for venture funds and emerging managers bring on the data!👇
Meltem Demirors
Meltem Demirors12.2.2025
1/ just wrapped my quarterly report for @CrucibleVC our playbook is simple as a GP, every quarter i quantify and qualify our ability to run this playbook. we double down on what works, experiment / re-visit with what isn't working. let's dig into the data and tools👇
@CrucibleCap 2/ on sourcing - we only log deals that are (a) investable (b) in our mandate and (c) in our valuation range. pipeline "stuffing" is obvious + exhausting. social media / content + co-investors drive our deal flow BUT outreach converts at highest rate (hunting v farming)
@CrucibleCap 3/ on pipeline - two trends - we nearly doubled top of funnel QoQ, nearly 1/3 of the Q2 volume directly came from two of my tweets and one of @itsanhonour_ blog posts - pipeline conversion rates dropped on a net basis - we're a lot more decisive earlier on in process
@CrucibleCap @itsanhonour_ 4/ deal velocity is another fun one - momentum is everything. Q2 was a mixed bag - scheduling first calls was slower but everything else was faster. we're finding a new niche - we did two "first money in" rounds on SAFEs w larger discounts so founders can hire / keep running.
@CrucibleCap @itsanhonour_ 5/ early stage is so competitive. our target is 5% ownership w first check of $500k-2M. GOOD LUCK. out of the 16 deals we've done in Fund I, we have been first or only capital in on one third. we can't farm, we have to hunt aggressively with courage and conviction.
@CrucibleCap @itsanhonour_ 6/ there's no one approach to portfolio construction but you can't improve what you don't measure. execution of our ownership strategy is a mixed bag tbh. bigger funds shifting earlier stage and crowding in "hot" deals creates tough dynamics - hard to find balance rn.
@CrucibleCap @itsanhonour_ 7/ interesting - our non-core deals where we are significantly below ownership goal are the ones seeing fastest step up in basis. in these deals, the first round *ever* was >$50M in one case >$250M. these were more mature co's at time of first raise. momentum makes or breaks!
@CrucibleCap @itsanhonour_ 8/ reflections as a GP - megafirms hard to compete with - 10+ scout teams, invest across lifecycle. founders want them! - outcomes are binary (esp outside crypto BUT imo crypto VC very hard rn, new tokens flop) - figure out where and how you can win and focus - measure + track
9/ good resources / people to follow @endowment_eddie snarky but spot on @Beezer232 and @Samirkaji to "demistify" LP side @MeghanKReynolds good intel on capital raising from her seat @AltimeterCap @TheFundCFO from @chapterone great newsletter, great templates on modeling fund economics @EricFriedman his firm is our fractional COO / CFO, great templates
@CrucibleCap @itsanhonour_ @endowment_eddie @Beezer232 @Samirkaji @MeghanKReynolds @AltimeterCap @TheFundCFO @chapterone 10/ venture is going through an interesting evolution. @lessin has done some great writing on this. ALL emerging managers 10% of a16z's singular $20B AI fund and ~60% of FF's latest fund. many won't graduate to Fund II. more pressure than ever on emerging managers!
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