Some of the worst positions I’ve taken started with one subtle shift: My reasoning changed from “I think X will happen” to “I hope X happens.” That hope-based reasoning creeps in more than people admit to themselves. And to be fair, some degree of speculation and uncertainty is inherent. But the moment your thesis hinges on someone else doing something (e.g., “I hope the team launches X,” or “maybe a big account shills this”) you’ve lost control of the trade. That kind of setup isn’t invalid by default it just needs structure. You need to bracket it with rules. What helped me is refraining it like this: “My thesis is that X will happen by N time. If not, I’m out.” “If price drops to Y and fails to reclaim, the setup is invalid.” Without those constraints, you’re no longer trading a thesis; you’re praying for one to appear. The second-order problem? Hope trades linger. You hesitate to cut because “maybe tomorrow.” You anchor to your entry. You stop evaluating risk dynamically. And that’s when a small misstep turns into a big loss. Build structure around your beliefs or be ready to get punished by them.