The US job market is flashing a warning signs: Non-farm payroll growth slowed to +0.97% YoY in July, the weakest pace since 2020. This marks the 3rd consecutive month with growth near +1% YoY. Meanwhile, the 3-month average payroll change has fallen to +35,000, the lowest since June 2020. Outside of 2020, this represents the weakest labor market in 15 years. In previous business cycles, such a slowdown in growth has preceded recessions. Will history repeat itself this time?