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The Kobeissi Letter
Only one asset class has told a consistent story:
Gold.
Gold prices have been rising in a straight-line higher since 2022.
The commodity is now up +43% in 12 months and +100% in 3 years.
Today, that narrative continues as gold prices take another sharp turn higher into record high territory, above $3,500/oz.
The reality is that deficit spending is worsening, inflation is still an issue, and the labor market is rapidly weakening.
Gold has known this was coming for months now.
Keep watching gold.
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It's official:
The top 10% largest US stocks now reflect a record 76% of the US equity market.
This has officially surpassed the previous record set before the Great Depression in the 1930s.
By comparison, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, the top 10%'s share was at ~73%.
In the 1980s, this figure was below 50%.
Meanwhile, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now represent a record 40% of the index’s market cap.
We are witnessing history.

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Trillions of Dollars worth of corporate investments are coming to the US:
Yesterday, Apple, $AAPL, announced plans to invest ~$600 billion domestically over the next 4 years.
This is expected to create ~20,000 new jobs.
Apple's plan includes new facilities in Texas and Michigan, and deeper ties with US suppliers.
Additionally, the Stargate Project announced in January is set to bring $500 billion to AI infrastructure and create 200,000 jobs over the next 4 years.
Meanwhile, Nvidia, $NVDA, and Taiwan Semiconductor, $TSM, have pledged $200 and $100 billion, respectively.
Corporate investments in the US are skyrocketing.

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The US job market is flashing a warning signs:
Non-farm payroll growth slowed to +0.97% YoY in July, the weakest pace since 2020.
This marks the 3rd consecutive month with growth near +1% YoY.
Meanwhile, the 3-month average payroll change has fallen to +35,000, the lowest since June 2020.
Outside of 2020, this represents the weakest labor market in 15 years.
In previous business cycles, such a slowdown in growth has preceded recessions.
Will history repeat itself this time?

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