fwiw Powell is progressively less important with each passing day (and sure it’s possible the slight hawkish tilt might be all we needed for a typical Aug/Sept correction/positioning unwind — though I’m not sold yet) By the time we come round to the September meeting, market will already be looking ahead to H1 2026 The endgame is still growing fiscal deficits and near-guaranteed more dovish monetary policy (and more important than ‘muh rate cut’ is the continued path towards negative real rates again imo — v possible this is driven by cyclical inflation rebound with rates held / marginally lower) The melt-up comes before the consequence — and that is yet ahead imo

Coming back to this after today’s jobs report and I think it’s now quite clear that Wednesday was Powell’s swan song Bowman and Waller dissented and the data came out in their favour — you would imagine their voices will be amplified within the committee going forward whilst Powell’s will diminish Would place a pretty decent probability on Jackson Hole onwards being viewed by the market as a post-Powell Fed