Some personal thoughts: A couple of years ago when I thought a recession was pretty likely, I was looking at the rates of change of all the metrics the NBER uses to date official recessions. Many of those things looked pretty gross in 2022 and 23 in rate of change terms relative to past cycles, and they almost looked fractally the same as a typical recession, or at least heading in that direction. I was very vocal about these findings, posted a lot of charts and went on spaces, and though I always said it was a high *probability*, there were moments when I thought we were on the cusp. But that outcome never manifested thankfully. I underestimated the fiscal side of the equation and failed to fully consider the strength of household balance sheets, as two call outs to remember. The Covid situation broke literally every chart - they all look like a big rug shake. And as things settled back down to rates of change that are more normal, it looked to me like a big slowdown in many ways. And some of those observations were true, like credit and job growth being some of the lowest rates we've ever seen. But those didn't lead to a contraction in economic growth partly because household balance sheets remain solid and asset holders are boosted by a persistent wealth effect and interest income. I've learned a lot since then. A lot of folks think I'm permanently bearish on everything which has never been true, but I have not always expressed those views as loudly as I have the risks. It's a point to grow on. Over the past couple years I guess I've just learned to keep the distribution of outcomes in my head a little wider than I did earlier in the cycle. and I haven't been as comfortable sharing my thoughts from then to now for a few reasons. I will think about how to do a better job of that going forward because I know some folks valued my point of view. Anyways that's what I had to say.

I think Bitcoin's chart still looks fine structurally and I assume it will make another high because equities have made new highs. However, I do think a lot of folks are perhaps too excited about whatever they think is about to happen. I don't have a strong opinion, but it wouldn't surprise me if there's just another similarly sized leg up and then another period of consolidation, or maybe that's the top. I don't think BTC is about to go to 400K or anything like that. If it does, I will open a nice bottle of wine with the wife. I also shudder to think what catalysts could drive that size of a move after the bull market we've already had, so it's tricky.

Paul Volcker: "There was no reason for me to believe that further steps to tighten could not be taken when and if I was prepared to make the case for them. But the press and the market didn't see it that way. To them, the split vote spelled hesitation and left the impression that this would be the board's last move to tighten money. The whole maneuver was therefore counterproductive in seeming to send a message that inflation could not be, or would not be, dealt with very strongly. That made a large impression on me because it was further confirmation of what I had long sensed. After years of failed or prematurely truncated efforts to deal with inflation, markets had developed a high degree of cynicism about the willingness of what they dismissed as 'Washington' in general, or the Federal Reserve in particular, to stand firm. In market talk, we always seemed to be 'behind the curve', reacting too slowly and too mildly only after the evidence was abundantly clear, which by definition was too late." -from "Changing Fortunes"