1) Some personal news: After nearly a decade of 24/7 in crypto - five of those incredible years in research at @TheBlock__ alongside @lawmaster , @dogetoshi and many others - I’m taking a (temporary) break to focus on personal projects.

2) I entered crypto in 2016, when it was still the wild west. It was far more intellectually engaging than the derivatives I was pricing at BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse. Crypto quickly consumed all my attention. Back then, the smaller ecosystem allowed for deep dives without constantly chasing new narratives. Stories about OGs were still being whispered.

3) The 2017 ICO boom changed everything. Most projects failed, but many genuinely believed they could reshape the world into a freer and better place. Cypherpunk ideals were still widespread. Whitepapers weren’t investor blurbs, they were often thoughtful and ambitious. While most major CEXs were hopelessly backlogged on verifications and listings, @CZ revolutionized CEX UX by launching @Binance and listing tokens fast - and benefitted heavily from crack downs on Bittrex, Poloniex and their likes.

4) The 2018 bear market was brutal. USDT was still met with deep skepticism and the depeg didn’t help either. Most projects died. One key exception: @StaniKulechov’s @Aave (then ETHLend), which kept building throughout the bear market and has continued building ever since - credits to @lemiscate.

5) 2019 was slightly better, but the 2018 collapse had substantially thinned the ecosystem. It genuinely felt like the crypto experiment might be over. Only a handful from the class of 2017 persisted. Those who did, were rewarded.

6) 2020 brought the COVID crash and the BitMEX liquidation spiral - BTC looked like it might actually hit zero. But in short order central bank liquidity injections revived markets. DeFi Summer followed, with genuinely innovative verticals and renewed hope. @RektHQ Hopium Diaries captured the times well. I joined @TheBlock__ between @mhonkasalo and @FrankResearcher. We scaled research swiftly and globally, eventually having colleagues across over 12 countries in 2021.

7) In 2021, institutions started to dip in. Coinbase IPOed. Yet aside from NFTs, it was mostly disappointing innovation-wise. SBF, FTX, 3AC, SOL and LUNA dominated headlines. DeFi primaries were constantly rehashed. Scams exploded. Still, crypto had become too big to ignore. So the establishment began actively and mostly covertly fighting it, with the Biden administration leading the charge.

8) The 2022 bear was rough, but not nearly as devastating as 2018. Stablecoins substantially cushioned the blow. Overleveraged players and scams imploded once more, just on a bigger scale: LUNA, Celsius, 3AC, Voyager, BlockFi, FTX and Genesis all went down. The industry was forcibly reset.

9) 2023 was quiet - mostly fallout cleanup. Few from the 2021 cohort endured. But recovery came in the fall, culminating in US BTC ETF approvals in early 2024.

10) 2024 finally brought the long-awaited US BTC ETF - despite heavy internal resistance from the Biden administration and Gensler. Institutional inflows accelerated. Crypto and TradFi became increasingly entangled. With Trump’s return, years of regulatory pushback gave way to actual legislative tailwinds. Ironically, while crypto was expected to mature and stabilize volatiltiy wise, it was TradFi that took on crypto’s volatility - many stocks began to trade like shitcoins.

11) In 2025, institutions are here. Nation-states are adopting BTC. Stablecoins are surging in popularity. Post IPO Circle traded like a mania compared to Coinbase. But little of crypto’s original ethos remains. Many OGs have gone silent and not only for security reasons. Privacy and free-market ideals have faded. Once anti-establishment, the industry now actively courts those it once wanted to strip of centralized power. KYC/AML are rampant and increasingly serve political agendas not at all related to their original intent. The Trump family’s blatant crypto grifts haven’t helped and are encouraging a new wave of outright scams. The implosion of poorly structured Bitcoin/Etherem/XYZ coin treasuries will likely be the reason for the next bear market.

12) Where do we go from here? Full Crypto-TradFi integration is inevitable. The industry will mature further, hit market caps in the tens of trillions and unlock new use cases. Just remember: Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins.

13) As for me, for the first time in years I have a white canvas in front of me. Beyond continuing to support my current (and some new) ventures, I’m excited to explore projects I’ve sidelined for too long. If we haven’t caught up in a while, let’s reconnect. Stay free.