I've seen a lot of posts saying: Asset X is now at same price Y time ago -- X must be an amazing buy I think this is the wrong and dangerous way of thinking on how to value digital assets. This is putting too much conviction in backwards looking historical USD charts. All these posts are technically right, but miss the forest through the trees here How I choose to think of these things: I look at asset X relative to historical Y sure, but keep in mind the story Z. Z is the input here most forget about, which is the story of whatever X is trying to win or accomplish in this space. Z is what determines Y. Is Y cheap for Z? Is Y a better ratio to Z (Price/TAM) from last time this asset was here? Z is what has changed over the last several years if you've been paying attention. It has changed both from traction of X in fulfilling it, but also how the overall market has voted what Z is worth. If you've been in this space, you likely now have a better understanding of Z, what other projects are competing for Z, how far ahead or behind X is, how fast it's been growing (or not), its current trajectory given current landscape, and only then you can in your mind better weight risk/reward of buying asset X Basically what I am saying is in years past I have bought things at prices like today and felt really good about it in that moment. Now, years later, I don't think it's as easy as just viewing it as the same sort of upside/downside bet you may have done from years before. Now I have much more information that wasn't available to me back then and I'll feel differently about it because of that. These inputs (X itself, competition to X, value of Z) will have shifted, and it's my job to acknowledge that and decide whether it's as attractive (or not) as it was before and it's not done (imo) by backwards looking USD charts. So what I try to do is update my priors, revisit Z, see what has been either validated or invalidated from the market and PA from the years that have passed since and then decide what I want to do Hope that makes sense to you as well