Markets may be running ahead of themselves in pricing rapid Fed easing. Friday's jobs figure of +73K, which missed expectations, while carrying biggest two-month downward revision, stoked fears about the economy, spurring traders to price in the September Fed rate cut. But that's just one report, and according to Scotiabank, the headline figure isn't all that bad. The breakeven rate for payrolls is somewhere between 80K-120K. So more data is needed to confirm the labor market weakness. Meanwhile, Powell's Fed has time and again stressed its dual mandate, which includes price stability. The ISM manufacturing data released last week showed price paid index well above 60 even as new orders fell below 50. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The ISM services will be released this week alongwith the CPI and PPI readings. Should these figures point to sticky price pressures, we could see markets dial back rate cut bets.
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