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Lewis Cohen
Living on reds, vitamin C and blockchain (but not animals 🌱). Speaks only for self. A tweet does not legal advice make. @CahillNXT
Lewis Cohen kirjasi uudelleen
Prediction markets have a PR problem: they read as gambling and “mostly for men.” Data backs the skew about half of U.S. men have an online sportsbook account.
The mechanism (opinion → price → reality) is much bigger.
Demand is visible. The rails already exist. Regulated venues list real-world contracts, CPI prints, jobs, gas prices, even hurricanes and settle on official data. Consumer UX just hasn’t caught up.
Where this goes next: fashion, dating, health, culture. These are prediction problems hiding in plain sight.
Fashion is the cleanest wedge. We already publish and consume forecasts (Vogue/WGSN). The Lyst Index ranks “hottest” brands using searches, views, and sales. Treat that as the information layer; add a tradable layer, weekly trend baskets that resolve on sell-through %, search share, resale velocity. Now style has price discovery.
Stop selling it as “betting.” Sell it as forecasting you can act onhedge plans, allocate time, make better calls. That’s how you grow beyond the current male skewed base.
My view: prediction markets are the next consumer decision layer. Keep the UX A→Z simple, settle on third-party data, build compliance in. Turn noise into prices and prices into decisions. It's not about the industry, it's about the execution.
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Fantastic thread, well worth reading all the way through.
🔥🔥🔥
1.8. klo 02.14
Market sentiment has shifted meaningfully against crypto venture funds and in favor of liquid managers
Last week a prominent liquid fund blew up and liquidated its assets, reigniting this debate
1/ A jumbled defense of the role that venture funds play in crypto
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Wow!! This is a must-listen folks. It does not get better than this. Well done, @JacobRobinsonJD!
🔥🔥🔥
23.7.2025
Thrilled to have SEC Commissioner @HesterPeirce and Crypto Task Force Chief Counsel @MikeSeligEsq back on the Law of Code podcast this Friday.
Tokenization of securities, market structure rules — what else would you like to hear them discuss?
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Signal boosting this excellent and super-detailed analysis of the Senate market structure discussion draft released yesterday by the inimitable @JBSDC.
Look for our full write-up and comparison with CLARITY coming soon to a X account near you!
🔥🔥🔥
22.7.2025
35 pages only. Well this will be a fast analysis. I’ll just hit the highlights.
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Thrilled! GENIUS is a first step in a long journey, but that’s how journeys go. The next step is perhaps the biggest … market structure legislation. I believe it can and will happen soon.
Here’s to all those who got us this far and to those who will take us the rest of the way.
19.7.2025
The GENIUS Act got signed into law today, and I look forward to working with SEC-regulated entities to integrate payment stablecoins safely into our capital markets:
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