Trendaavat aiheet
#
Bonk Eco continues to show strength amid $USELESS rally
#
Pump.fun to raise $1B token sale, traders speculating on airdrop
#
Boop.Fun leading the way with a new launchpad on Solana.
With this morning's PCE report in hand, we can circle back to see how my control group price index model performed...
A quick thread on implications for control group retail sales 🧵
17.7.2025
Here's a look at the simple model I used to estimate the PCE Control Group price index, which leverages CPI and PPI price indexes that correspond to Control Group spending categories like appliances, furniture / furnishing, construction materials, consumer electronics, recreational goods.
As I've noted in my recent posts regarding the CPI & PPI reports, prices for many of these goods have accelerated notably in recent months and the model picks this up nicely.
Given the upward revisions to May PCE and modest upside surprise for core inflation, control group inflation accelerated to 0.46% m/m in June, above my 0.38% model estimate and up from 0.31% in May.
This was the hottest monthly print for control group inflation outside the pandemic in over 20 years.
This means even more of the rebound we saw in June retail sales was simply due to higher prices, not a rebound in real consumption.
Real control group spending inched up by only 0.11% in June, while inflation accounted for the remainder of the 0.49% gain.
On a quarterly basis, real control group spending has cooled to a paltry 1.1% annualized pace, down from 7% last July.
This isn’t new information, as control group sales flow directly into yesterday’s GDP report.
Weak consumption growth has been a key feature of 2025, so far.
30.7.2025
Looking closer at the consumer, the downshift has been fairly broad-based, with spending on both goods and services taking a step down.
8,4K
Johtavat
Rankkaus
Suosikit