Why GPT 5 feels like a linear advance: In AI, it takes exponential gains in compute and training data to produce linear gains. Compute thrown at training has been rising unsustainably (doubling at 3x Moore's Law pace). Text data for pre-training is almost exhuasted. GPT5 is a clear improvement. And it should surprise no one that the improvements feel linear - because they largely are. There will be new paradigms that provide step functions and bend the curve (as reasoning did). But the current paradigm shows diminishing returns. AI is awesome, to be clear. It's an incredible gift. It's already transforming our world. But fast takeoff, exponential progress, recursive-self-improvement narratives run into the diminishing returns / exponential difficulty of moving up those scaling laws.

Travel is the bane of bigotry. It is easy to hate people you have never seen, never met, never spoken to. It becomes much harder when you've shared a train, a word, a laugh, a meal, a drink. It's why cities are universally blue. We know we're all in this together.

White Americans who left their home town voted for Clinton in 2016. Those who still lived near where they were born went for Trump.

Last year, the natural increase in the US population was about 520,000 (births minus deaths). AEI's "low forecast for net immigration" is negative-525,000. So, it's not out of the question that the total US population shrinks for the first time this year. (via @NewsLambert)

Huh, Tony Villaraigosa is running a totally abundance-pilled gubernatorial campaign in California

About that.

The battery wave is going to be faster and more penetrative because it will be inherently more flexible. Solar is downstream of weather and geography. Batteries are not.

Using AI doesn’t have to make us dumber. Evidence: AI boosts service rep productivity and customer satisfaction. Even during AI outages, those who use it regularly are more effective. Outsourcing thinking to AI yields cognitive debt. Learning from AI pays cognitive dividends.

Russians trying to fool our AI interceptor drones by putting bird stickers onto their reconnaissance drones. Insane warfare.

Full brain of an adult fruit fly has been mapped with every neuron and synapse. A first at this level in any adult animal. I’m always impressed when science gets this visual. Explore it here: v2.virtualflybrain .org