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Stephan Livera
#Bitcoin Podcaster and adviser to @boldbitcoin
Stephan Livera kirjasi uudelleen
This is such a great old Saylor video and to me, it encompasses the essence of investing.
It really is just about putting together a vision for where the puck is going that the mass market hasn't, and then having the conviction and patience to see it through.
The beautiful thing about this is all the billion, trillion dollar funds with all their $1M/yr salary quants don't have any edge in doing that over you and I doing that. Everything Saylor mentions here was public knowledge, he just put it together in a way many didn't.
No fancy math gets you this, just some research on the topic at hand and some high level reasoning capability to put it together correctly and project it forward.
My best tradfi trade was buying AMD at $2 before it ran to $200. The thesis was that their new chips were competitive again for the first time in 10 years. That's it. Full stop. One sentence thesis for a 100x trade. Meanwhile every analyst on wall street was laughing at them, they had always lost to Intel and always would in their mind.
You can have insane edge by simply understanding a product, making some correct assumptions about the future of that product, and having the discipline to hold until that future is realized.
There is no formula for learning this, it simply takes experience and education. Read as much as you can about as many things as you can and push your understanding of the world as far as it can go. You'll find that you start making connections, start formulating visions for where things are going rather than where they are because you now have a solid base of knowledge and pattern recognition to project from. Maximize your capacity for reasoning.
99,94K
Stephan Livera kirjasi uudelleen
Bitcoin wealth levels and primary focus:
Stage 1: You have less than $1 million worth of BTC
Primary focus: Capital Accumulation
Get to $1 million worth of BTC as quickly as you can.
Today that's 8.69 BTC.
Soon it will be 6.15 BTC.
Then 1 BTC.
Stay laser-focused on your business until you bank your first 7 figures.
Do not waste your finite time and attention thinking about trading in and out of assets at this level.
You should be stack-only.
Focus on being useful to others like the robots are coming for your job.
Because they are.
Don't think the path you're on will get you where you need to go?
Then change your path.
Channel your efforts into opportunities with uncapped upside and use various forms of leverage (personal brand, AI tools, code, relationships) for non-linear growth.
Just remember: Working harder isn't the answer. You can accelerate your capital accumulation if you work smart.
Just make sure your upside isn't capped.
One unit of input should lead to multiple units of output.
And your work should ideally compound like your assets.
Where to start?
Helping other people make more money in their business is a good rule of thumb.
E.g. AI is a new tool that few people know how to use effectively.
So help them leverage AI in their business.
There's a million niches within that one obvious idea.
You can figure it out and make anything happen.
If you want to.
Stage 2: You have between $1-$5 million worth of BTC.
Primary focus: Capital Allocation & Preservation
At this point you should increasingly focus on your own investor psychology, mindset, and risk management.
You have some momentum at this stage.
Keep it rolling.
Keep stacking Bitcoin and milking your personal cashflow.
But realize that you're closing in on escape velocity.
And your main job is to not screw it up.
BTC's 40-50% CAGR means you're looking at adding $400-$500K to your net worth on autopilot.
When taking taxes into consideration, that's like earning close to $1 million per year in income and saving all your after tax income.
Something that very few people ever manage to do.
This is the point where your BTC starts to make money faster than you likely can through your own effort.
Which means you should shift a portion of your time into mastering your investing psychology.
You need to be mentally prepared for likely market scenarios.
You need to have a plan.
You need to know yourself, and know how you'll react when volatility strikes.
Do you need a cash pile that helps you sleep at night?
How long of a runway do you need to not panic sell the next dip?
These are questions you must address.
You're on your way to generational wealth.
And you cannot afford to screw up at this stage.
Stage 3: >$5 million in BTC. Escape velocity.
Focus on Time Allocation.
Many people in the fiat world don't see $5 million as "enough" to retire.
But that's because inflation is usually outpacing the returns of their "safe" investment portfolio.
But if you have $5 million in BTC, you're adding ~$2 million to your net worth each year, and it's compounding (as long as you have a long time horizon).
You can spend $20K-$25K a month and still watch your wealth accelerate.
At this point, you should take a minute to recognize that the future is uncertain.
AI and robotics will soon change everything as we know it.
And you will never have as much time as you do now.
At this point, you need to be deliberate with how you allocate your time.
Imagine you only had 5 years left to live; would you be spending your days as you are now?
What would you change?
You've essentially solved the money problem.
Now your focus should be on how to live well in a way that doesn't require extreme extravagance.
That way when you get to $100 million net worth in the next decade you know how to enjoy your good fortune without relying on ever more money to do so.
Find activities that you enjoy and that you can compound over the long-term.
Do things that make you feel alive and don't lead to a "hangover" later.
Prioritize your health and family.
Congratulations, you've won the money game.
And your reward is that now you get to pick a new game to play.
Choose your next adventure wisely.

132,21K
Stephan Livera kirjasi uudelleen
The Storm conviction is unacceptable in “the crypto capital of the world.” Here are the necessary steps to right this wrong and protect software developers:
1) DOJ must accept the jury’s refusal to convict on money laundering and sanctions, and must not retry the case
2) DOJ must dismiss the Section 1960 charge, or else Roman must be pardoned
3) Congress must amend Section 1960 to clarify that money transmission requires control of funds and does not apply to the developers of non-custodial software
There is no greater threat to crypto than DOJ’s misguided war on developers, which started under Biden and must stop under Trump. This battle may have been lost, but the war will be won.
18,25K
Stephan Livera kirjasi uudelleen
This is a terrible outcome for Roman and for all of crypto.
If the Trump administration wants the USA to be the crypto capital of the world, then DOJ must not be allowed to retry the two deadlocked charges.
This is existential. If you've been sleeping on Section 1960, wake up.
10,36K
Stephan Livera kirjasi uudelleen
Roman Storm was convicted for conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business under Section 1960.
The jury was deadlocked on money laundering and sanctions. DOJ will decide in the coming days if it wants to retry those charges in a new trial.
A sad day for DeFi.
16,15K
Stephan Livera kirjasi uudelleen
The government should never have brought this case.
Section 1960 should not apply to the developer of a non-custodial protocol who lacks control of user funds.
This case should go up on appeal. Hopefully the Second Circuit will correct this (and many other) errors in the case.
4,29K
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