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阿科
What are you afraid of, there is no end to learning, and there is joy in every inch
$light updates are here
Clearly, I overestimated the team's execution capabilities and held onto some illusions.
In the past 7 days, the team's official Twitter has only posted three updates, all about trivial matters.
There hasn't been much indication of support for developers, and the anticipated theme fund operations seem to have shown no results.
Of course, revenue has plummeted dramatically, with the coin price dropping by 70%.
Moreover, the market hasn't assigned a price to the theme fund (which I was most optimistic about), and this is the root of the problem.
Perhaps anonymous purchases are a long-term thing, or maybe the team just writes well.
In summary, we've grown again...
Don't listen to what he says; look at what he does.
55.3K
It's fine, just a little bit of $light. I'm already deeply trapped and currently don't plan to add to my position, so it's all just nonsense.
1. The only top-tier business left in the crypto space that we can do ourselves is gambling, $hype and $pump.
2. The launchpad is a business that can earn at least $500 million a year; this is a huge piece of meat. But to do this business well, we need to start from the height of memes. The most impressive meme in the last month should be $spark, right? Highest at 80m?
3. Why are memes not working anymore? There are various explanations in the market, but the core issue is simple: they are not making money anymore. All the flashy tricks have been played out, and there are more scythes and tools than there are leeks.
But this still doesn't mean that the meme business is failing; pumps can still yield over $1 million in daily revenue.
4. The solution to the problem, I think, is still a consensus issue. Consensus comes either from a great story or from a great background; emotions are the boosters of a specific era.
5. Stories are scarce, but backgrounds can be reused repeatedly. Various dragon concepts, various old horse concepts, a16z concepts, all can be used repeatedly to stimulate the market.
But the problem goes further: as a casino owner, whether it's bonk or alon, or even bsc's dual saints, they have all proven with their strength that celebrity endorsements for a specific project or concept are always a wave, and the heights are getting lower.
6. So the most impressive thing is how to create formulas in bulk, stably, and periodically. Ideally, there should be a golden dog every week, where everyone has stable expectations and is pursuing that weekly lottery jackpot.
7. This is where the heaven platform cuts into my territory. They set up a fund, with a new subject every two weeks, supporting tokens within the theme, and buying, buying a lot, only buying and not selling (the founder's exact words on Twitter). Moreover, the fund's purchases are anonymous and will not disclose holdings; it will always be a black box, maximizing the fun and odds of gambling.
8. I think this is crucial: stabilizing and periodicizing expectations. Other launchpads are either rolling out defenses/unlocking/technology, or rolling out token issuance methods, or doing recommendation rewards. I think these haven't solved the fundamental problems.
On another note, buybacks are toxic and very addictive.
This brings us to the issue of business models. Launchpads are inherently the strongest business model, but both bonk and pump have shortcomings in value capture.
So pump needs to create its own swap, while bonk can only solve it through buybacks.
Heaven's solution is to build its own dex, keeping all profits for itself. As long as transactions occur within the ecosystem, they ultimately benefit $light, which is very strong. Just like useless, which can not only boost bonk's popularity but also genuinely congratulate bonk on profits; this is very impressive and doesn't fear the so-called ecosystem surpassing platform coins. You just need to be awesome, and I will earn passively.
100% buybacks are not just a stock-like method; they also make holders very willing to gamble on the platform because they know that even if they lose, at least the portion that the casino takes will be something they can enjoy through holding coins. The interests of gamblers and the casino are aligned, which is very impressive.
Similarly, the devs holding coins are the same; they not only enjoy the profits of their own projects but also benefit from the growth of the entire platform.
So it's very addictive.
....
But to be fair, the platform is a 2b business; the customers it targets are not gamblers but market makers and developers.
The heaven platform has been launched for 10 days, and there are still no impressive projects emerging. The project's first phase of support has already passed the halfway mark.
It can be said that we have reached the most critical stage of falsification. If after 7 days, there is still no explosive ecosystem, then I will definitely admit defeat.
Good business models are rare, but if the execution team is not capable and cannot solve key issues, then it will still be in vain.
Currently, my position is a bet on the business model, and I am clearly very invested. So if you are also interested in this project, I suggest you continue to wait and observe the project's delivery capabilities.
34.25K
Everyone is speculating on the $wlfi concept coin.
I haven't participated and don't plan to get involved in concept coin speculation.
Mainly because the operational difficulty is too high; sometimes you miss the first wave, and if you want to catch the second wave, you're likely to choose those that look cheap, have low market caps, and haven't risen yet, like lista and sto.
But things that ride the hype often end up being just a long wick on the K-line, turning into a fast-paced PVP game.
Moreover, position allocation is tricky; if your position is too small, making a little profit feels pointless, and if your position is too large, you might face slippage, plus it's hard to control your mindset.
I used to love playing, but after losing too many times, the experience wasn't good, so I stopped.
50.56K
To add on $light
After experiencing a normal pullback, according to my expectations, it should be a pullback + consolidation until the 24th, with a potential dump on the 25th due to unlocking expectations.
At the same time, the official anonymous fund has also been operating for a week, allowing the team to slowly collect chips and pull off a nice second-tier dragon.
This is also the bottom-buying time I preset based on timing.
However, there are two variables that caught me off guard:
1. The team did not pull up $dark as expected; instead, a meme that mocked the situation surged to 8 million overnight, becoming the new leader.
This might slightly affect the psychological inertia of holders, as this is the third time the second-tier dragon has changed. But since it did pull up, it counts as a bit of an explanation.
2. Last night brought significant good news, leading to funds rushing in, which caused the washout not to be fully completed.
Overall, the evaluation is neutral; it’s neither a good thing nor a bad thing.
The current situation is:
1. Two small golds ran out yesterday, currently on the launch list, comparable to the pump, which is quite good (see image one).
2. The official hasn’t released any information for a few days; I don’t know what big move they are holding back.
3. The discussion in the Chinese community is still not high, and it continues to face ecological fatigue.
Since I have already bought a certain position at a high level earlier, I have decided to continue observing and may increase my position when the fundamental shift occurs.

33.79K
$yzy definitely cannot be compared to Trump, because the market environment is completely different, and the influence is also different.
0.1*0.1=0.01
I just don't understand where Kanye is impressive; it took me a long time to get it.
$yzy also cannot be compared to $pengu.
Although they both seem to be in the trendy toy business, Kanye's business acumen seems average, and he doesn't appear to be the type to go all in with heavy investments. You can't expect him to diligently create another coconut or four-leaf clover for you.
He has already passed the exploratory phase of his career and has significant political blemishes.
After thinking about all this, my enthusiasm for bottom fishing has also cooled.
10.49K
$dark If it breaks through 10m, it means the gears of the self-fulfilling prophecy begin to turn.
$light The first step of surpassing $pump is complete.
Transitioning from pvp to pve.
Next, we will focus on the migration of market makers.
The entire heaven platform is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

20.98K
So overall, the trading volume of memes has already entered a bear market, and fewer young people are entering the meme trenches.
I just watched a recap from a troll, and the core point is that a good meme culture itself and having a whale to support the market are important.
I feel that this market has already become very distorted.

Kawhi|魔尼⚡️(逆骨版🌫️)Aug 5, 11:54
Moni believes that what needs to be demystified is not the "head of the car and KOLs," but a deeper issue: most people are unaware that, from the perspective of the dissemination chain, Twitter has always been the tail end of information.
A classic MeMe closed loop looks like this:
1. Offline organization: The dealer and project parties organize, plan the narrative, allocate nodes, and assign tasks to each person.
2. Initial warming up: KOL institutions start looking for people to do small-scale placements, choosing their own to "create god KOLs," while simultaneously raising the success rate of "artificial KOL" calls for future groundwork.
3. On-chain activity: The "smart money and dealer front" controlled by the dealer begins to buy up, trading frequency skyrockets; gmgn and Axiom sweep the chain, signaling unusual activity.
4. Chain sweep reporting: P little generals release on-chain screenshots and address analyses in core groups, forming "technical endorsements."
5. Narrative solidification: The narrative and on-chain data are mutually causal, retail investor confidence instantly surges, and they begin to actively disseminate.
6. Full explosion: Meme sentiment ignites Twitter, traffic + chips gather at high positions.
7. Dealer withdraws: The great retreat.
Most of us are always positioned in the latter half of the "full explosion," and even within this "explosion period," there are actually levels:
【Organizing institutions → Private group rental dissemination → Semi-core group activation → Head P little generals without background discover → Small group dissemination → TG spread → Twitter dissemination → Emotional overflow】
Each step has a strict hierarchical order.
And you might only start "TG spreading" from step 5; only start to "believe" from step 6's "Twitter dissemination"; and only "finally make up your mind to get on board" at step 7's "emotional overflow"—just in time, providing a liquidity exit for others. This isn't your fault; it's just that you've never been at the front end of the dissemination chain.
Of course, being at the tail end of the dissemination chain can be profitable, but you must understand: the money we can make at the tail end is actually "deliberately left by those above."
Earning at the tail end =
Favorable emotions + Liquidity connection + Lucky positioning.
Many times:
KOL calls ≠ He got in early ≠ He sees accurately.
On the contrary, his call might just be because he knows the narrative has reached the tail end and needs a "voice outlet"; he doesn't want to take you on board; he wants to "arrange you behind him when he offloads," it's that simple.
Moreover, from the above meme closed-loop logic, you can also see that KOL's research ability is not the only criterion for judgment,
because they do not rely on "research" to establish themselves in the entire dissemination chain, but on the following three things:
1. Verbal ability > Research ability
Most KOLs do not need to truly "understand" the project or on-chain logic; they just need to be able to write provocative text and have a decent number of real fans and good traffic.
KOLs do not need to mine; they just need to broadcast,
which is enough to complete their "task" in the dissemination chain.
2. Value of dissemination nodes > Value of information judgment
Many people mistakenly believe that the core of KOLs is judgment; in fact, KOLs are just traffic transmitters:
It is their "node position" that gives them influence,
not their judgment that creates value.
The task of KOLs is not to "discover opportunities" but to help the dealer's narrative penetrate more people, creating a collective illusion of consensus.
3. Narrative alignment > Investment success rate
Many times, project parties, dealers, and FNF need someone to stand up and back the narrative; the role of KOLs is to "play the believer." Whether they call or tweet, how they do it, is not actually based on research,
but on timing and division of labor—
You post, I offload; you create the image, I respond; you call the market, I provide the volume, so whether they really understand is not important.
What matters is: can they shout the right words when it's their turn to step in?
Conversely, you will understand:
Those who truly have research ability often do not want to be KOLs; those who truly have alpha also do not want to review or tell stories.
And what you see, like Moni, as "understanding brothers," is often just that they haven't received the broad support yet and are still slaves to traffic.

3.56K
1 January peaked
4 April crashed
5 May rebounded
6 June consolidated
7 July started a new round of ETH narrative in Beijing
8 What will August be like?
Regarding ETH, I am quite concerned about:
1. After the staking type ETH comes out, it will impact the competitiveness of companies like Sbet. ETFs have no premium and can also enjoy staking rewards, so Sbet's NAV may be capped in the long term. In the end, will there only be a lower threshold for institutional investors in US stocks?
2. It is expected that a series of ETFs, including SOL, will likely be listed in October, which may divert purchasing power.
3. The narrative of ETH as a "noble consort" is more of a grand vision; from the perspective of the public chain business, it is not as good as SOL.
All of the above are based on common sense judgments. If mistakes occur in the future, it will just test the flaws in cognition.
25.27K
Let's not talk about losing money.
Most of the losses come from the fear of missing out.
Betting on narratives, betting on the house, betting on the dragon two, betting on elasticity and multipliers.
In the end, only a few make money, and their positions aren't even fully leveraged.
Profits are all eroded by emotional trading losses.
3.04K
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