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A lot of people seem upset with this, but let me explain:
While I think the ALT/BTC rally can extend through late August (while ALT/ETH bleeds), I think there will be a rotation back to BTC in Sep/Oct, as seasonals favor BTC over ALTs during that time
9.8. klo 20.03
To those that claim this is alt season:
If this is alt season, why are ALTs down 47% against ETH since April?
Just like in the BTC dominance uptrend, you can always find a few that go against the larger trend.
But let's try to understand larger trends, not the few exceptions
@lolpalantir I actually explained what is happening weeks ago, just most people have no patience or self control to understand it
21.7.2025
My base case for those who don't get the nuanced view:
BTC.D rejected at 0.786 Fib Level (66%) just like it was rejected at 0.618 Fib level (60%) last year.
ALT/BTC is up because ETH/BTC is up
But ALT/ETH is bleeding
So ETH is better than ALTs.
Remember ALT/BTC pairs have found a local low every June from 2022-2025).
ALT/BTC rally will likely end by late August at the latest
BTC.D rally in Sep-Oct
ETH/BTC higher low in Sep/Oct
ALT/BTC pairs lower low in Sep/Oct (could be beginning of Nov).
Hard to know if the next rally by BTC.D leads to a higher high even if ALT/BTC pairs put in a lower low (as it depends on how high the next higher low is for ETH/BTC).
Look at what ALT/BTC pairs did from July-August of 2017 and see how they still dropped to 0.25 by late October.
Look at how while ALT/BTC pairs are up, ALT/ETH pairs are down 40% since ETH "went home."
I could be wrong about any one of these views, but these are my views.
When something I posted above is inevitably wrong, you are welcome to post this receipt and laugh.
Also, I'm not talking about your alt.
@AhsanAli0333 @flippifi Literally explained what is happening now weeks ago, you are just too impatient to watch it play out
21.7.2025
My base case for those who don't get the nuanced view:
BTC.D rejected at 0.786 Fib Level (66%) just like it was rejected at 0.618 Fib level (60%) last year.
ALT/BTC is up because ETH/BTC is up
But ALT/ETH is bleeding
So ETH is better than ALTs.
Remember ALT/BTC pairs have found a local low every June from 2022-2025).
ALT/BTC rally will likely end by late August at the latest
BTC.D rally in Sep-Oct
ETH/BTC higher low in Sep/Oct
ALT/BTC pairs lower low in Sep/Oct (could be beginning of Nov).
Hard to know if the next rally by BTC.D leads to a higher high even if ALT/BTC pairs put in a lower low (as it depends on how high the next higher low is for ETH/BTC).
Look at what ALT/BTC pairs did from July-August of 2017 and see how they still dropped to 0.25 by late October.
Look at how while ALT/BTC pairs are up, ALT/ETH pairs are down 40% since ETH "went home."
I could be wrong about any one of these views, but these are my views.
When something I posted above is inevitably wrong, you are welcome to post this receipt and laugh.
Also, I'm not talking about your alt.
@flippifi @keepingcool11 Once again, you are wrong and here’s the proof.
And once again you won’t admit it.
Done dealing with you.
Ciao
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