they really finally taught everyone about cycles and then supercycled it lmao

the psychology behind identified groupthink in markets is sooo fkn interesting man for the last 3 years people have been having the same "is the cycle over" discussion Generally whenever anything seems overly smart/genius and people talk about it alot to appear so, its a bad sign i.e ppl btfo by alameda scam but can recover face and genius by using 110iq brain to go "genesis is going to implode crypto is going to zero" not taking into account the fact that it was 10% the size of ftx implosion and sth that was far more legally protected than ftx so way less chance of horrific meltdown but hey it matched sth that happened before and shows my gigabrain so this is what i'll do Usually black swans occur once then never occur again, but once they've occured once the mental assumption of them occuring again is somehow 100x'd in that vein, we have 10000s of people talking about cycle this and cycle that yet i rly cant find many posts from people in the past that actually got it right part of human nature to think stuff is conquerable, but truth is markets arent conquerable atall and no matter how much energy heart soul wisdom u put into it ur still just slinging dice, and becoming profitable is more about understanding that than trying to find cheat codes

the reason shit like this works so well is because the market isnt psycopaths with PhDs who are eating ur lunch its just 1000000s and 100000s of monkeys and monkey think monkey do, 1 monkey 10 monkeys 50 monkeys 10000 monkeys always the same as 1 monkey monkey degenerate but monkey no like loss, so put this many monkeys in a room, give them the core human trait of "you cant ever sell at a loss nurse the position till it hits break even then ur ego wont be hurt" and they will collectively position in a way where they dont experience small pain but a one time decisive giga pain that fully decapitates poor little monkey (once u know this in markets u are king of the world, basically every major move that makes giga monkey is based off of this premise, and understanding when the monkey has been beheaded and when it hasnt) it blows non-trader peoples minds when the stock market nukes and nukes then suddenly retraces everything "wtf? the rates havent changed yet tho? the economic data hasnt come in yet? wtf tariffs? no this doesnt make sense" thankfully it doesnt blow our minds coz we are gigachads and know that the spx is a vehicle designed to literally just go up, except for brief interims where it kills everyone who is over zealous, the economy doesnt impact it in anyway since the spx is the economy, mag7 will turn into mag1, this is all the end results of capitalism, we are unironically so fucked uhh yeah i think what i was trying to say was if something completely blew you off course, you ego wise will want to know exactly how to spot that singular something again, but its not worth it, it ends up consuming u instead