Is Chain-of-Thought Reasoning of LLMs a Mirage? ... Our results reveal that CoT reasoning is a brittle mirage that vanishes when it is pushed beyond training distributions. This work offers a deeper understanding of why and when CoT reasoning fails, emphasizing the ongoing challenge of achieving genuine and generalizable reasoning. ... Our findings reveal that CoT reasoning works effectively when applied to in-distribution or near in-distribution data but becomes fragile and prone to failure even under moderate distribution shifts. In some cases, LLMs generate fluent yet logically inconsistent reasoning steps. The results suggest that what appears to be structured reasoning can be a mirage, emerging from memorized or interpolated patterns in the training data rather than logical inference. ... Together, these findings suggest that LLMs are not principled reasoners but rather sophisticated simulators of reasoning-like text.

2508.01191v2.pdf