Had this conversation with the guys on the desk today; If you sell 1% of AUM in premium on tails consistently, you’re guaranteed to blow up if you play the game long enough. That’s not a maybe, it’s inevitable. But if you buy 1% of AUM in premium on tails, there’s no guarantee you’ll get rich. Funny how those two outcomes are the extremities of one another but aren’t mirror images of each other. One path ends in certain ruin; the other, uncertain reward.

The game is simple, you must not lose money.