"The Social Transformation of Prediction Markets" Currently, most prediction markets resemble tools designed for professionals. Users need to first clarify the questions they are interested in, find the corresponding prediction market, assess the odds, and only place bets after confirming they have an information advantage. This is very efficient for knowledgeable users but quite unfriendly for the average user. The entire design assumes that users possess professional knowledge, clear goals, and rational judgment abilities. This indeed meets the needs of analysts and experienced users. However, I believe this model limits the development space of prediction markets because it assumes that user participation is solely for obtaining excess returns. I think there should be another model: user participation is to express opinions. Prediction markets have the dual attributes of information tools and social platforms. On such platforms, beliefs can be transformed into actual actions, with each bet being a public statement and each position being an expression of stance. What would the "Douyinization" of prediction markets look like? We can imagine a social platform where each post is linked to a corresponding prediction market, with the overall interaction experience similar to Douyin—endless scrolling, algorithmically recommended content, and user-initiated subscriptions. In addition to regular likes and shares, users can also directly build positions in the associated markets. In this design, users no longer need to actively search for prediction targets. The system will automatically push topics of interest based on personal preferences, behavioral data, and social relationships. Every swipe of the screen could trigger capital participation in a certain opinion, event, or trend. Users do not need to deliberately seek out areas with information advantages. The system will intelligently recommend related markets, such as you might come across: "Will ETH/BTC break 0.03 this week?" "Will Trump replace Powell before the end of the month?" "Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this year?" "Will [some influencer] update content this week?" In this way, each of your betting records will become a public social profile. From Profit-Seeking to Credibility: Prediction Markets as Identity Expression In this model, prediction behavior no longer solely pursues excess returns (alpha) but evolves into a way of identifying oneself. When you casually bet $5 on the platform, the motivation is often not to be certain of having an information advantage, but to indicate: "I belong to the AI technology camp," "I am a die-hard fan of a certain team," or "I pay attention to geopolitical dynamics." This expression of opinion backed by real money is more persuasive than mere verbal statements on traditional social media. Just as posting and retweeting shape one's persona, prediction markets allow you to construct verifiable "belief credentials." Each bet is a footnote to your worldview. Over time, these trading records will form a unique credibility map: Who has market foresight? Who truly practices what they preach? Who is genuinely an expert in the field? All answers are clear and traceable. Achieving Seamless Participation Current prediction markets are like YouTube, a vast database categorized by themes, covering various prediction targets in politics, cryptocurrency, sports, etc., where users need to search for content. This model fits the needs of professional traders, analysts, and institutional users because it replicates the standard workflow of "posing questions - analyzing probabilities - establishing positions." But the problem is that this mechanism requires users to come with a clear purpose. It assumes that every visitor has formed a clear judgment and is ready to trade at any time. This presumption creates a natural barrier to participation, excluding most average users. Mainstream users find it difficult to maintain such a high-intensity participation state. The success of Douyin provides insight: it actively identifies user preferences through algorithms rather than passively waiting for users to clarify their needs. Many early on thought it was just a "short video version of YouTube," and this innovation seemed trivial. But it is precisely the "short, fast, and quick" nature that creates advantages difficult for other platforms to replicate: instant gratification, genuine expression, and viral spread. The key to Douyin's creation of a new category lies in eliminating the decision burden on users. You don't even need to know what you want to watch; the system continuously learns and pushes content that you genuinely care about. Betting Becomes a Mode of Dialogue This socialized prediction makes market participation as natural as daily communication. It can automatically present topics you care about and invite you to express your stance with real money. Most importantly, it completely eliminates the decision burden of "What should I predict?" When prediction markets integrate into personalized information streams, they become not just tools for traders but part of the public discussion on hot events, internet memes, and popular culture. Betting behavior no longer requires complex analysis; it feels more like saying: "This is my opinion." This fusion of social interaction and prediction will create a new form. The most active markets may not be major issues like presidential elections or Federal Reserve interest rates, but rather the hottest topics of the moment. KOLs will drive trading volume, and popular culture will attract attention. In such scenarios, the primary motivation for people to bet is no longer potential returns but to prove: "This is my stance, my opinion, my identity." Conclusion Prediction markets are changing the way people express themselves. When every opinion needs to be supported by real money, this expression becomes more authentic and credible. This model brings several important changes: - Betting behavior becomes a new social way. People express their stance through positions, which is more persuasive than mere verbal statements. - Market data reflects social concerns. Actively traded targets often correspond to currently hot topics. - Economic investment becomes proof of credibility. Those willing to take risks for their opinions are often more trustworthy. Future prediction platforms may evolve into new types of social tools. They can not only show what people are discussing but also reveal how many people genuinely agree with a certain opinion and who is willing to support their views with real actions.