🇯🇵🇺🇸 - neither “done” nor “deal” 🇯🇵Akazawa: US Will Cut Car Tariffs Once Levy Stacking Is Removed Excerpt below from a note in the works - my commentary on 🇯🇵Trade Minister Akazawa’s X post after leaving the Oval “sealing deal” w/ Trump (which I translated) 🧵

Looks like I accidentally made it in the back door of being published in Nikkei Not that that’s by any means a goal, let alone an interest of mine “What to do about Trump’s $9tn debt dilemma” by @IChronicle ←owned by @FT← owned by @nikkei “Another important and perhaps overlooked risk for US Treasuries is the fallout from the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market. When the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tapers its rollover of long-dated JGB holdings, retrenchment of a guaranteed buyer of last resort reveals weaker demand and forces up rates. This has two important knock-on effects, argued Weston Nakamura, an expert on Japanese markets. The first is upward pressure on other developed market yields, something that is more consequential in the US (which due to US yields being the global risk-free rate affects other asset class valuations) than in Japan itself. The second is market functioning and liquidity: the combination of Japan’s government adjusting the maturity profile of its own debt and the BoJ trimming its balance sheet has the potential to create volatility episodes that get exported. Japan issues bonds in its own currency, so can’t default, and rampant inflation isn’t an issue (albeit cost of living still played a part in the government losing its upper house majority), so why does Japan need to change its policy course so dramatically? The answer, suggests Nakamura, is the need to improve the functioning of capital markets. Past radical actions such as yield curve control flushed out key participants like market makers and arbitrage traders. In order to reboot these essential workings of the financial system, and therefore the liquid capital flows Japan’s economy needs, the BoJ must lessen intervention and allow the free market to breathe.”

“Doing the rate hiking for 🇯🇵BOJ”

This might sound a bit weird but 🇯🇵🤡Ishiba’s relentless refusal to step down as PM via his almost heroic level of dedication to very openly not giving A FUCK what 🇯🇵 wants / elects / demands etc - this sheer resolve is also helping prevent long-dated JGBs from cratering (though completely unintentional of course) Personal view: 🇯🇵🤡PM Ishiba ain’t going nowhere anytime soon immediate ~ near term & maybe longer That said - just be ready if he suddenly does find a sliver of shame, honor, legacy etc within - as it would trigger a violent repricing of JGB/global yields

Check out my appearance @HiddenForcesPod with @kofinas discussing major risk to JGB (& therefore🇺🇸🌎DM) long-end bond markets via the now post-election fractured & highly uncertain state of 🇯🇵politics → vastly wide range of potential JGB issuance coming👇

What’s going on with Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba? Is he resigning or not? To clear up some confusion, here’s what we know: multiple legit Japanese media outlets across the political spectrum have reported he will quit, this month or next, after Sunday's disastrous election 1/

Thanks for your 🇯🇵 visit this past election weekend that “didn’t have any trade negotiation activity etc” Can you please finish your regime change mission & kick “Prime Minister” Ishiba out though? Thank you sir. -annoyed rooter/advocate for both 🇺🇸 & 🇯🇵

Nissan CEO Espinosa: There Will Be No Further Actions In Vehicle Restructuring In Japan

Lot of people (well maybe not a “lot…”) put out 🇯🇵commentary - much of which is nonsense What makes the difference for the good ~ great are those who really try to dig in & seek out 🇯🇵nuances But @peruvian_bull actually came to 🇯🇵boots on ground Was honored to be part of this Thanks Bull-san!

Will the Yen's Collapse Speed Up The Endgame? featuring @acrossthespread, @kinetic_finance and myself! special thanks to @Blockstream for sponsoring!