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ETH is Capped // Short-Selling BMNR
I will initiate this thread with that I am short ETH from ~$3800 as well as short BMNR. I am first targeting $3500 and then ideally lower b/w $3000-3300. This is not a recommendation or financial advice advising you, the reader, to pursue any activity listed in this thread
The reason this opportunity exists is because I believe that the amount of capital that has pushed us here to-date is non-replenishing and showing signs of exhaustion. This is occurring at a point where distribution has been poignant thus far on a HTF basis ($4000). I will caveat this note that this is a strictly LTF view. I do not necessarily think the TCo meta is a "flash in the pan" that is going to end today; and for that reason amongst others - this post may not concern you
I will illustrate specific examples of why this exhaustion exists - where it comes from - and use key numbers from visible sources/sinks of demand to illustrate the rate of demand that is implicitly priced at today's prices. I will then contrast what may be available moving fwd in showing why today's prices are unsustainable
First - as a starter - I have been long ETH the last 2 weeks (to varying success). Between July 11th and July 14th, I believed that the vehicles creating the most torque (not just on ETH, but especially on ETH) were not being acknowledged sufficiently by the market. Hence, the rational thing to do was to: get long. At the time, price was b/w $3150-3300. I put together an aim for $4000 ETH and significant OTHERS expansion beyond $300+.
I believe therefore that I am well positioned to address the reasons why ETH can achieve these downward price targets because I understood, on the other end, the prongs that made ETH attractive as a LTF LONG - namely:
- vibrant marketing in the form of positively-inclining legislation re: Crypto Week & the 3 stable bills
- echo/reflexivity conjured by the 10-20x multiples being observed in ETH TCo vehicles post PIPE-announcement
- robust ETF volumes/flows seeing generational ATHs
- staking (ETHA) acceptance that was being lost in translation from news fatigue elsewhere
However I believe that these points of strength are behind us for now, and moving into August - there are a unique set of challenges/obstacles (re: August reminder) that can create friction
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