this cycle’s top won’t be when your cousin buys in it’ll be when some shampoo brand announces they put bitcoin on their balance sheet treasuries are the new retail dogfood company buys crypto = sell everything until then we’re still early

just joined Cerebro as an advisor i say no to most advisory offers but this one was easy - i already use it every day @cerebro_hq is hands down the best portfolio tracker out there if you’re not using it yet... why? also, something fun is coming soon🤫

real question: where are we in the cycle? because it feels like we’ve already hit every top signal imaginable > first celebrity memecoin rug was over a year ago > coinbase hit #1 in finance apps 8 months ago > $27.4B+ in airdrops this cycle > an actual president launched his own memecoin 7 months ago > the guy looking for 8k BTC in a landfill gave up (after 12 years) > 200+ companies now hold crypto on their balance sheets > there are over 300 crypto ETFs and ETPs live globally and yet, here we are still going up but how long will we keep going?

it’s been a while since i fell into a new crypto rabbit hole last time was hyperliquid before that, solana early days didn’t expect the next one to be... telegram?? i’ve always saw it as just alpha chats and sniping bots but after 3 days of digging into it, i came out with a very different perspective some quick notes from someone who usually ignores telegram coins: 1. notcoin is way bigger than i thought it’s basically a distribution engine it started as a tap-to-earn game inside telegram but turned into a viral funnel: > 2.8M onchain holders > listed on binance, bybit, okx, kraken > no insiders, no vesting, no dump cliffs (token went 100% to players) and they've kept building actual products: a full game launcher platform (“steam for telegram”) in development games, NFT sticker platforms (these are huge), reward bots - all inside telegram they basically turn telegram from a messaging app into a lightweight crypto platform notcoin becomes the currency of that layer 2. DOGS is also not what i expected > crypto red bull > 5.5M onchain holders > TON’s biggest token > $550K+ donated to real-world charities (animal shelters, child welfare) > Guinness World Record drone show at TOKEN2049 pretty cool stuff final thought: crypto has always promised mass adoption - and mostly failed at delivering it TON + Telegram might’ve accidentally pulled it off simply because they removed steps, built where the people already are, and leaned into fun thanks to both these teams for partnering with me on this deep dive

last cycle i made a ridiculous amount on NBA Top Shot everyone thought it was the future buy highlights → they moon → repeat everyone thought it would be the next big thing but it died not because people stopped liking basketball but because there was nothing to do. no gameplay no strategy no reason to come back unless prices went up once the hype drained, so did everything else sorare had a similar issue cool tech, real licenses... but the experience felt like a spreadsheet and you could easily be priced out of the best players these games fail because they confuse collecting with playing (!!) they build stores, not games over the weekend i tried FDF ( @footballdotfun ) not the full thing - just a test of their trading layer called the Microdex Buy players. Watch prices move. Simple, clean mechanics. it’s early, but it already fixes a lot of what made the others frustrating. no clunky order books. no fake scarcity. no way to be priced out (cause it's tokens, not NFTs) you can tell the people building it actually play this stuff the full game isn’t out yet, but if the trading layer is any clue, it might be the first sports app in crypto that doesn’t just look good during a bull market the pack sale is coming soon and i’ll be there (see you on Wale's stream hehe) i’m invested + partnered but i’d probably be playing either way it just feels like someone finally got it right

a hill i’m willing to die on: crypto will eventually reward attention as much as capital we’re already seeing it, but i think we’re still in it's early stages right now it’s either people farming engagement or people farming protocols rarely both @falconstable is one of the first to build for both sides they launched Yap2Fly, a dual leaderboard where your rank is based on two things: > how loud you are on Kaito > how active you are onchain minting usdƒ, staking, holding earns you badge xp more badges = more rewards (imo you should aim for gold and above) meanwhile your kaito posts push you up a $50k/month leaderboard top 200 also get future rewards they’ve already crossed $1B+ in TVL and locked in a $10M strategic raise from WLFI i’ve always believed the best systems reward both skin in the game and narrative risk this is the first one that actually tracks both partnered with falcon, but this genuinely feels like a blueprint for how protocols should grow in public

how people go broke: a few weeks ago, I talked to someone who made mid-seven figures during the recent memecoin bull he didn’t get lucky on one coin he was early, sharp, caught every major trend walked away with more than most people will ever see in their lives but now, he's almost broke because he couldn’t scale his life back down when the money came in, his whole world shifted he moved to a better apartment, flew business class, made new friends who were used to that level of spending $80k months became “normal" then the market slowed and the trades stopped working, at least not at the same scale but he kept spending not because he was stupid, because downgrading felt impossible how do you explain to new friends that you can’t split the villa this year? that you’re back to flying economy? that the new version of you... was temporary? your ego won’t let you money from a bull market is like a windfall of luck if you mistake it for skill, you build a life that only luck can sustain when the luck runs out, so does everything that depended on it this story isn't rare, it’s just rarely told and it’s happening more than anyone wants to admit

i got a confession to make: i miss when farming points felt fun when it didn’t feel like you were the one getting farmed well... Yuzu season 3 just launched on EDU Chain and it actually feels gud again: > use the chain (24 dapps live) > farm points > get rewards 75M Yuzu getting split (more if you hold a capy) partnered but this might be the most fun I’ve had farming in a while

the only sell formula i trust: “if i didn’t already own this, would i buy it today?” if the answer is no, i start trimming if the answer is hell no, i exit entirely don’t anchor to your entry (important!) don’t wait for some imaginary top holding something you wouldn’t buy today is just self-gaslighting

setting up auto-compounding DCA was lowkey the best thing i’ve done for my mental health i don’t even flinch on red days anymore And now that I’ve automated the whole thing end-to-end (DCA → staking/LP) i legit save hours of brainpower every week my buys happen my staked bags grow feels like easy mode