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David Andolfatto 🇮🇹 🇨🇦 🇺🇸
Construction worker turned academic turned central banker turned academic again. Chair, Economics Department @MiamiHerbert University of Miami
Preliminary results from a model with USD as global reserve asset suggests foreign producers can be expected to lower prices in the manner suggested by Bessent, at least, to the extent ROW has few good USD substitutes.
20 hours ago
Companies, not consumers, have been bearing the cost of tariffs. With corporate margins normalizing post-COVID, that trend is likely to continue.
2.25K
In the old days we called this "monetizing the debt."
Aug 13, 19:25
Scott Bessent had one job.
To sell the U.S. debt to the world.
He’s going to do it with Stablecoins (his words, not mine)
Here’s exactly what he’s got planned:
12.74K
President Schmid is wrong about not looking through tariffs. Taxes are not inflationary. Taxes distort relative prices can be deflationary to the extent revenue is used to contract supply of nominal securities (e.g.., national debt). Thought this was basic textbook material?
Aug 13, 01:14
Kansas Fed President Schmid subtly trashing Waller's view that inflation ex-tariff is already around target, so we should look through it.
5.75K
2% long-run inflation target is not dead. Fed will just interpret above target as "mean-reverting," updating forecast errors as they go along. This would be completely symmetric w/ how they behaved when undershooting inflation for a decade; see:
Aug 12, 22:25
YoY Core CPI, 3.1%
Up 0.3% in the last 3-months
In the last 40 YEARS, only once has the Fed CUT rates when core was above 3% AND the 3m chg was >0.3%, Oct 1990 to Mar 1991.
Agree with @EpsilonTheory, the 2% infaltion target is dead.
We are accepting a higher inflation world.
1.67K
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